Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 41.760309 49.271857 57.504999 67.166847 78.161050 90.247772 104.505497
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 29.133734 38.699691 50.220279 64.979043 83.232781 104.909115 132.421104
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 22.761147 33.188060 46.693156 65.170508 89.455786 119.918953 160.599280
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 18.764330 29.629395 44.591193 66.200329 96.026989 135.095999 189.368467
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 14.194162 24.299787 39.095355 61.628445 94.229125 138.714564 202.824823
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 12.325858 22.558238 38.306914 63.331463 100.902555 153.822348 232.264832
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 10.315553 20.199920 36.192940 62.689949 103.926516 163.800530 254.950364
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 9.619545 19.893650 37.194070 66.814627 114.215784 184.664790 294.112770
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 7.680230 17.040154 33.623035 63.210536 112.223617 187.181831 306.544190
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 6.985196 16.365849 33.645176 65.450291 119.512196 203.955729 340.872820
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 6.696514 16.432440 34.963219 69.966660 130.741473 227.322389 386.232587
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 6.104165 15.772081 34.851539 71.926226 137.794449 244.429476 422.654250
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 5.244946 14.496161 33.626201 72.164343 142.645825 259.425060 458.438317
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.261209 12.737983 31.232310 70.040439 143.349314 267.964568 484.909070
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.649598 11.709683 30.154115 70.264888 148.184562 283.575214 523.588960
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.198662 10.972309 29.570064 71.364128 154.645340 302.240919 568.169223
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.434138 9.165207 26.281902 66.492195 149.383408 300.175846 577.706080
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.182621 8.757003 26.174054 68.307490 157.110487 321.412921 627.973053
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.840077 7.965273 24.995380 67.623751 159.795952 333.663811 663.158180
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.770068 8.044076 26.028977 72.018749 173.046923 365.904072 734.885205
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.378898 6.886146 23.622272 68.178612 168.999978 365.765423 748.907064
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.266088 6.704917 23.835079 70.565306 178.196908 391.031157 809.793071
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 1.238890 6.851287 24.996122 75.375535 192.901721 427.498523 892.516344